"Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts and Solutions" was recently released by the Union of Concerned Scientists, and PennFuture’s Sharon Pillar had an opportunity to speak with two of the scientists who contributed to this comprehensive, stunning report. This new report, part of a series in the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA), provides information on the impacts of climate change on key climate-sensitive sectors (coastal, marine, forests, agriculture, winter recreation and health), and options and opportunities for mitigation and adaptation.
The NECIA is a collaboration between the Union of Concerned Scientists and a team of more than 50 independent scientists and economists and covers the U.S. Northeast, from Pennsylvania to Maine.
The report finds that without urgent action to reduce heat-trapping gas emissions today, the region could face a number of very serious impacts, detailed below. Important to note, however, is that the report examines two emissions scenarios, a high and low, but these should not be considered ceilings or floors. In other words, things could be even worse than predicted and modeled, and even under the lower emission scenario, things are bad. The key will be for us to reduce significantly our contributions to the problem to come in below the low-emissions scenario; that would mean, on average, cutting emissions by about three percent per year for decades, which is very achievable but cannot be delayed.
In this podcast (first in a two-part series), Sharon speaks to Dr. Jerry Melillo. Vice-chair of the NECIA synthesis team, Dr. Melillo is director of the Ecosystems Center at the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole, Mass., and a trustee for the H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment.
Summary of Potential Impacts
Climate: By late this century, summers in Pennsylvania could resemble summers today in Georgia or Alabama if emissions continue unabated. Under a lower-emission scenario, summers in Pennsylvania could resemble those in Virginia and Kentucky.
Human Health: The number of days of dangerous heat and poor air quality that Pennsylvania residents will need to cope with could increase dramatically this century. By late-century, Pittsburgh could experience roughly 24 days over 100ÂF every summer under the higher-emissions scenario, compared with roughly six such days under the lower-emissions scenario. Also, increasing levels of carbon dioxide are expected to accelerate seasonal pollen production over the next several decades, extending the allergy season and exacerbating symptoms for asthma and allergy sufferers across the state.
Agriculture: Under the high emissions scenario, most July days in Pennsylvania late in the century are projected to exceed the heat-stress threshold for many economically important crops currently grown in the state, and the dairy industry is particularly at risk. High temperatures would also allow agricultural pests and weeds, such as kudzu, to spread further north.
But there is good news, too. The report shows that the technology and ingenuity to reduce the threat of global warming is already at our fingertips. Solutions are already available:
Electric Power: The state of Pennsylvania has seized upon wind energy as a new energy resource and an economic development strategy. The wind-energy company Gamesa, for example, is investing $84 million and creating nearly 1,000 jobs by locating its U.S. headquarters in Philadelphia and building three plants in the state. We have also made great strides in jump-starting renewable energy development and energy conservation by passing key sections of the Energy Independence Strategy, and will continue to pursue other aspects of the total strategic package as laid out by Governor Ed Rendell this fall.
Buildings:"Green" building programs, like the federal Energy Star Buildings program and the U.S. Green Building Council LEED certifications, provide guidance needed to make buildings more energy-, water-, and resource-efficient. Pittsburgh has the largest number of "green" buildings of any city east of the Mississippi.
Transportation: The transportation sector in the Northeast represents the single largest source of CO2 emissions. Pennsylvania adopted California’s vehicle emissions standards, which will require emissions reductions of 30 percent below 2002 levels by 2016, beginning with the 2008 model year (with implementation contingent upon an EPA ruling).
For more information and to view the full report, including state-specific information for all the northeastern states as well as a new solutions feature, visit www.climatechoices.org/ne. For more information on PennFuture’s Cool Pennsylvania Campaign to stop global warming here at home, visit our Web site. There you can also make a donation to support this critical work. As always, we welcome your questions and comments. Simply e-mail us at podcast (at) pennfuture (dot) org, or click on the "Comments" link below.